British property surveyors
called on the Bank of England to limit the rise in house price,
joining a chorus of concern about the risk of a new boom-bust
cycle in the country's housing market.
* Surveyors urge BoE to adopt explicit house price policy
* Concern grows about possible boom-bust property cycle
* Government's "Help to Buy" subsidy scheme under fire
The proposal by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
- an unusual one from an industry group that typically benefits
from rising prices - is for the central bank to take measures to
slow mortgage lending if house price growth exceeds 5 percent a
year.
The upturn in Britain's property market is likely to be high
on the agenda of the BoE's Financial Policy Committee when it
meets next Wednesday. The committee is charged with spotting
risks in the financial sector and acting to head them off.
Annual house price inflation has already jumped above 5
percent, according to mortgage lender Halifax.
The government says its "Help to Buy" initiative will help
first-time buyers get on the property ladder and says activity
in the housing market remains far below its pre-crisis peak.
But critics say the new measures will merely push prices
further out of the reach of first-time buyers.
A second, more controversial phase of the plan, which will
provide state guarantees for riskier mortgages, is being drawn
up by the Treasury ahead of its scheduled launch in January.
"Sending a clear and simple statement to the public that the
Bank of England will not tolerate house price rises above 5
percent would help restrict excessive price expectations across
the country," the RICS report said.
"This policy would discourage households from taking on
excessive debt out of fear of missing out on a price boom, and
discourage lenders from rushing to relax their lending standards
as they compete for market share."
Until recently the BoE only had one tool - interest rates -
to deal with a surge in house prices.
Caps on loan-to-value ratios, loan-to-income ratios, or
ceilings on the amount banks are permitted to lend could all be
introduced should house price inflation rise above a chosen
threshold, RICS said.
"It would be a speed bump, a warning indicator," said RICS
chief economist Simon Rubinsohn told BBC radio. "What we're
trying to do is manage the volatility in the market."
Rubinsohn acknowledged that the policy would need to have a
regional dimension, reflecting the fact that price pressures in
northern England and Wales were much weaker than in London.
Howard Davies, a former BoE deputy governor, said such a
scheme would not tackle the root of the problem - the lack of
new property development.
"The real problem is that we are not building enough
properties," Davies said. "That is what we should be working on.
I don't think a price cap across the country would work."
Housebuilding has picked up in recent months, thanks in part
to the government's Help to Buy scheme, but is still running
around 25 percent below its long-term average.
Data on Friday showed new construction orders were almost 20
percent higher in the second quarter than in the first, but
economists say a more sustained increase will be needed just to
keep pace with rising demand.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has promised to be
"vigilant" about the risk of another house price bubble and has
indicated a preference to use more intensive supervision of
lending, rather than interest rates, as an initial response.
Many countries have already used macroprudential tools to
cool the housing market, including Canada between 2008 and 2012,
when Carney headed the country's central bank.
source: reuters
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