India's headline inflation
hit a six-month high in August, driven by a surprise surge in
food prices, hardening the case for central bank governor
Raghuram Rajan to keep interest rates high at his first policy
meeting later this week.
Food inflation accelerated to a three-year high of 18.18
percent in August, government data released on Monday showed,
driving overall inflation to a higher-than-expected 6.1 percent.
Recent government moves to increase fuel prices also spurred
the jump in the Wholesale Price Index.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a headline reading
of 5.80 percent, compared with 5.79 percent in July.
Late planting and disruptions in supplies of vegetables and
onions due to heavy summer rains have fueled food inflation.
Onion prices jumped 51 percent between July and August.
Monday's data is the last major data point before former IMF
chief economist Raghuram Rajan, who famously predicted the
global financial crisis, holds his first policy meeting on
Friday.
"Developments in the currency market suggest that RBI should
be in a position to start reversing its tightening measures,
however, they have to be careful as market could interpret it as
tolerating higher inflation," said A. Prasanna, economist with
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership in Mumbai.
The higher inflation number dampened market expectations
that Rajan would begin to rollback some of the measures put in
place by his predecessor in a bid to arrest a sharp fall in the
rupee since May.
India's markets reacted badly to the inflation news, with
stocks and the rupee trimming gains after the data was released,
while bonds moved into negative territory.
By 12:13 p.m. (0643 GMT), the partially convertible rupee
was trading at 62.78 per dollar compared with 62.50 before the
data.
NO SILVER BULLET
Rajan has already warned he does not have a "magic wand" to
deal with India's economic crisis, but as he has been dubbed
"The Guv" by a gushing Indian media, hopes are high he can find
a formula to stabilise the rupee, calm inflationary pressure and
at the same time spark a revival in economic growth.
Before he reveals his monetary stance, Rajan will have to
first deal with the outcome of a pivotal meeting on Tuesday and
Wednesday of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Fed is likely to announce measures to rein in its
massive economic stimulus. Fears of an expected policy tapering
have already sparked an emerging market sell-off, contributing
to the rupee's fall to a record low.
The Fed is expected to reduce its $85 billion a month
bond-buying programme, but financial markets are uncertain about
the extent of the reduction.
source: reuters
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